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Monthly report, April 2025

Updated: 3 days ago


In the latest edition of our monthly report:


Editorial


Chaos at the White House

  • Daily flurries of announcements on all fronts;

  • The global automotive industry in turmoil; and

  • DOGE still a long way from its objectives.


What consequences can we expect for the markets?

As mentioned last month, the US equity market has gone from euphoria to a kind of “hangover”. Uncertainty is at its peak, and the imminence of “Libera on Day” on April 2 could reduce some of the current stress levels.

- by Kim Muller, CIO (Switzerland)


Assessment of the economic situation

The US economy is showing signs of running out of steam, at least in the polls. The DOGE budget cuts are beginning to impact growth, while in Europe the German plan is giving renewed hope.

  • Between sentiment and reality;

  • Gold accelerates its uptrend; and

  • Germany abandons budgetary orthodoxy.

 

What about the SNB's monetary policy?

At its meeting on March 20, the SNB cut its reference rate by a further quarter-point to 0.25%. While the decision was widely expected by the markets, its rationale was the subject of much

debate. Was the domestic economic situation “bad enough” to explain its decision, which could have worried the markets, at a time when the franc was not under upward pressure?

No, it turns out that the decision was preventive, “just in case” ...



Financial markets during the month

Equity markets were all negative over the month, with the exception of China. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 (small and mid-cap) indices lost over 8%, while gold shone brightly, up 9.3%.

  • S&P 500's worst quarter since Q3 2022;

  • The shock of the end of the German debt brake; and

  • Gold is rocketing up the charts.

 

Our quarterly convictions

Our convictions for Equities, Fixed Income & Alternatives - Probus Pleion Monthly Newsletter March 2025

Comments on investment decisions

  • Equities;

  • Bonds;

  • Precious metals, listed real estate (REIT); and

  • Currencies.

 

Performance summary

  • Equity performances; and

  • Performance of bonds, currencies and commodities



 

Disclaimer

This document has been prepared using sources believed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The statements and opinions it incorporates were formed after careful consideration and may be subject to change without notice. The author and distributors of this document expressly disclaim any and all liability for inaccuracies it may contain and shall not be held liable for any damage that may result from any use of the information presented herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Values of an investment may fall as well as rise. This document is intended for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment products or services. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualised advice from his/her financial, legal and tax advisors that consider all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation.


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